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Chinese Agricultural Natural Risks and Real Background of Uncertainty(软科学国际会议论文)

Chinese Agricultural Natural Risks and Real Background of Uncertainty1

Wang Jian[2]


[Abstract]  The agriculture is a typical risk industry.  The agricultural risk can be summed up two big kinds roughly.  One involves the agricultural production process, which is called the natural risk; the other mainly refers to agricultural management process, which is called the market risk.  To the entire agricultural development, other environmental factors or the exogenous factors of agricultural, like political system, law, policy and social factor and so on, possibly has profound influence to the agricultural development.  However, this article supposes that our research central on agricultural natural risk system is in using specific historical data to analyzing environmental disasters.  Those include waterlogged, drought, hailstorm, winterkilling, typhoon, and as well as plant disease and insect, grass evil, rodents harm.  Under background of uncertainty, through some kind of statistics analysis, in a macro-aspect we discussed the origin of agricultural production risks.  Maybe we possible find some rules to fight with huge natural disasters, there are four kind main disasters waterlogged, drought, hailstorm, and rat damage after the analysis that need to pay close attention in agricultural realm currently.

Keywords:  Risk identification; Natural disaster; Disaster formed rate; Disaster deduction rate; Tendency

1 Diversified natural disasters of Chinese Agriculture

Agricultural production is first dominated by natural condition, environmental variation and zoology and botany growth developmental mechanism.  These thunderbolts or the random events from the nature possibly make the agricultural production have economic loss that called the agricultural natural risks.  Natural disaster's risk is essentially refers to natural damage magnitude, time and uncertainty or their probability distributions.

The natural disaster and the accidents are the main origins of creating the agricultural natural hazards.  When a certain factors change or the thunderbolt occurs in the natural environment may bring to the agricultural harm.  The natural environment usually refers to the non-human created material geography space.  The natural matters, which are the sunlight, the air, the water, the soil, the wild animals and plants and so on, are the natural materials and non-artificial creations.  They are the fundamental factors of constituting natural environment.  What the agricultural producer first relies on is natural environment condition.  Natural resources and the environment conditions is also material base of whether a national agricultural production has superiority.

The natural disaster is also vital reason for Chinese agricultural resource is wasted and the ecological environment is destroyed.  Although the nation is abundant in natural resources, but the problem of soil erosion and destroying environment is very serious.  At present, national soil erosion area is 3.67´106 square kilometers, occupying 38.2of the land area.  These including every year the water erosion, lose the soil approximately 5´109 tons, nutrients and nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium were washed away approximately a hundred million tons, as well as the wind erosion and the desertification influence.  Only the fertility loss gives in every year more than seven bullions Yuan, the question is very serious.

China is one of natural disaster most serious countries in the world.  The types and the area of disasters are diversified and broad with higher proportion to be formed at final.  Its main natural disaster factors over 40 kinds, mainly have the flooding, the rainstorm, the hail, the drought, the gale, the spring cold wave, the low temperature in May, the winter